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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."